Saturday, March 22, 2014

Investing in Mineral Discoveries – March 2014



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“The Market Is Overvalued By 50%-70%” And “Nothing At All” Is Attractively Valued

A month ago we presented a must read interview by Swiss Finanz und Wirtschaft with respected value investor Howard Marks, in which, when explaining the motives driving rational investing he summarized simply, “in the end, the devil always wins.” Today, we are happy to bring our readers the following interview with one of our favorite strategists, GMO’s James Montier, in which true to form, Montier packs no punches,and says that the market is now overvalued by 50% to 70%, adding that there is “nothing at all” that has an attractive valuation, and that he sees a “hideous opportunity set.”
 
Still, despite the clear bubble in stocks, he is unsure what to do since financial repression could last very long with “the average length of periods of financial repression in history is 22 years. We’ve only had five years so far.” Finally on the topic of Japan and Abenomics, “for me, there is too much hope and expectation embedded in Abe, not unlike Obama in 2009: There was so much hope projected into Obama that he could only disappoint.” He did, well… everyone but the 0.001% billionaires. Then again in a world in which there is only hope left, what happens when that too is removed?

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Take These Steps Today To Survive An International Crisis

With the Crimea referendum passed and Russia ready to annex the region, the United States and the European Union have threatened sanctions. The full extent of these sanctions is not yet known, and announcements are pending for the end of March. If these measures are concrete, they will of course be followed inevitably by economic warfare, including a reduction of natural gas exports to the EU and the eventually full dump of the U.S. dollar by Russia and China. As I have discussed in recent articles, the result of these actions will be disastrous.
For those of us in the liberty movement, it is now impossible to ignore the potential threat to our economy. No longer can people claim that “perhaps” there will be a crisis someday, that perhaps “five or 10 years” down the road we will have to face the music. No, the threat is here now, and it is very real.
The loss of the dollar’s world reserve status will destroy the only thread holding up its value, namely, investor faith. There are only two possible outcomes from that point onward:
A) The U.S. will be forced to default because no nation will purchase our Treasury bonds and support our debt spending, causing the dollar’s value to implode.
B) The Fed will choose to restart and expand quantitative easing measures, confiscate pension funds, raid bank accounts or issue new taxes in order to keep the system afloat; this will also end in the eventual collapse of dollar value and hyperinflation.
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The Vast Majority Will Face Starvation — Alasdair MacLeod



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An LBMA Default Was Delayed, But It’s Coming: Andrew Maguire

kingworldnews.com / March 21, 2014
Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that an LBMA default was delayed by Western central planners, but it is coming, despite the West’s frantic efforts to avoid it.  Below is what Maguire had to say in Part I of an incredibly powerful series of interviews that will be released today.
Maguire:  “The net result of all of this (gold) leasing activity means that the bullion which is still showing on the central banks’ books as an asset has more than one claim on it.  Worse, the bullion banks don’t have the gold to repay them….
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Insider Selling Reaches 25-year High as Smart Money Dumps Stocks Before The Coming Crash

Ever noticed how a few smart entrepreneurs always manage to sell out in a boom before the bust? In the stock market this is even more apparent and surprise, surprise, insider selling always reaches a climax just before the crash.
The adjusted 25-year high insider index is flashing red right now. It’s a leading indicator, and usually signals imminent danger.
Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest concludes: ‘There have been two prior occasions when the adjusted insider ratio got almost as bearish as it is today — early 2007 and early 2011.
Danger signal
‘The first came a half a year before the beginning of the worst bear market since the 1930s. While the market didn’t fall as much following the second of these two instances, the May-October decline in 2011 did satisfy — based on intraday levels of the S&P 500 index — the semi-official definition of a bear market as a 20 per cent drop.’
After all, who knows more about a company and its business than the people running it? Or at least they ought to. Profits today reflect orders taken many months ago, and executives know from their order books when things are starting to go awry.
This is perfectly legal. Executives are only guilty of a wrongful insider transaction under US law if they act on information that should first have been disclosed to the public, such as an earnings announcement or takeover deal.
Insider selling is currently highest in capital goods, technology, consumer durables (such as automobiles, construction and appliances) and consumer non-durables (food and beverages, clothing and tobacco). It’s lowest in energy, industrials and financials, though you have to wonder how the banks would hold up if stocks really took a dive.
Profit forecasts
It would be very interesting to read a covert survey of how insiders currently view the profits’ outlook for their own companies. That’s probably the main reason for them selling out.
Stocks, investors should recall are valued in terms of multiples of their future profits. If the company profits are heading down, so are their share values. Profit multiples that are applied to reach valuations also looked stretched by comparison to stock market history.
Selling out when your company is trading at peak profits and overvalued by the market always makes good business sense. For how long will it be before that opportunity comes again, if it ever does?
- See more at: http://newswatch.us/insider-selling-reaches-25-year-high-as-smart-money-dumps-stocks-before-the-coming-crash/#sthash.gsPKEW02.dpuf
Ever noticed how a few smart entrepreneurs always manage to sell out in a boom before the bust? In the stock market this is even more apparent and surprise, surprise, insider selling always reaches a climax just before the crash.

The adjusted 25-year high insider index is flashing red right now. It’s a leading indicator, and usually signals imminent danger.

Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest concludes: ‘There have been two prior occasions when the adjusted insider ratio got almost as bearish as it is today — early 2007 and early 2011.

Danger signal

‘The first came a half a year before the beginning of the worst bear market since the 1930s. While the market didn’t fall as much following the second of these two instances, the May-October decline in 2011 did satisfy — based on intraday levels of the S&P 500 index — the semi-official definition of a bear market as a 20 per cent drop.’

After all, who knows more about a company and its business than the people running it? Or at least they ought to. Profits today reflect orders taken many months ago, and executives know from their order books when things are starting to go awry.

This is perfectly legal. Executives are only guilty of a wrongful insider transaction under US law if they act on information that should first have been disclosed to the public, such as an earnings announcement or takeover deal.

Insider selling is currently highest in capital goods, technology, consumer durables (such as automobiles, construction and appliances) and consumer non-durables (food and beverages, clothing and tobacco). It’s lowest in energy, industrials and financials, though you have to wonder how the banks would hold up if stocks really took a dive.

Profit forecasts

It would be very interesting to read a covert survey of how insiders currently view the profits’ outlook for their own companies. That’s probably the main reason for them selling out.

Stocks, investors should recall are valued in terms of multiples of their future profits. If the company profits are heading down, so are their share values. Profit multiples that are applied to reach valuations also looked stretched by comparison to stock market history.

Selling out when your company is trading at peak profits and overvalued by the market always makes good business sense. For how long will it be before that opportunity comes again, if it ever does?
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Harry Dent -- Timetable For The Next Collapse



Alex welcomes the founder of economic forecasting firm Dent Research, Harry S. Dent, Jr. to discuss why he thinks the Dow Jones industrial average may spike at 17,000 then make a rapid descent to 6,000 by 2016 and why the bankers need to a hit on this one instead of being bailed out.

Harry Dent of HS Dent Investment Management explains why he predicts a market crash in the third quarter of the year and that the U.S. is headed towards bankruptcy. Stock Market.. an aging Bull Market? Real Estate Party Over? Invest In Gold? Europe Crash Impact? The Government Has To Fail... Survive and Prosper in 2013 with Harry Dent. 
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9 Secrets for Successful Speculation

When I started working for Doug Casey almost 10 years ago, I probably knew as much about investing as the average Joe, but I now know that I knew absolutely nothing then about successful speculation.
Learning from the international speculator himself — and from his business partner, David Galland, to give credit where due — was like taking the proverbial drink from a fire hose. Fortunately, I was quite thirsty.
You see, just before Doug and David hired me in 2004, I’d had something of an epiphany. As a writer, most of what I was doing at the time was grant-proposal writing, asking wealthy philanthropists to support causes I believed in. (more)

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